Wednesday, 4 May 2016

And the result is ...

Crows in a treeOh dear! My prediction that I'd see someone famous in April did not happen. Regular readers will be aware that I had noticed my tendency to see more famous people than I thought was 'normal'. I worked out that I saw an average of 0.23 celebrities per month. But what was really weird was that I appeared to be seeing them at regular intervals, with the next one due in April 2016. Random events should not occur at regular intervals! So I reminded everyone of my prediction in my blog post of 6 April. Naturally, such hubris was rewarded with failure.

There are two kinds of prediction, in my opinion. Those, like this latest one, published for all to see in advance. Then there are those first mentioned only after the event they predict. The latter, of course, suffer from the problem that it could just be faulty memory. That is why I published my own prediction for all to see.

It was not a prediction based on a dream or psychic vision. I'd simply noticed an unlikely pattern in the dates of my celebrity sightings. It could, of course, have been a coincidence, albeit an unlikely one. But now, with the breaking of the pattern, it would seem it really was just a coincidence after all. Seeing patterns in data, something humans are good at, is important in providing original insights. Unfortunately, coincidence is always a possible alternative explanation that needs to be ruled out. The way to do this is by gathering more data. If the pattern then breaks down it means that coincidence is a likely explanation, as happened in this case.

It will be interesting to see when my next celebrity sighting occurs. That's assuming one does!

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