Tuesday, 17 May 2016

Fame at last!

Crows in a treeSo, I saw my latest celebrity a couple of days ago. I had actually forgotten about the whole famous person thing after the disappointment last month of failing to fulfil my prediction. So it wasn't as if I was unconsciously looking for as celebrity (see here) - as far as I know. So, is this latest sighting close enough to the original prediction to count as a hit?

For those people who are not regular readers, some background. I had noticed my tendency to see more famous people than I thought was 'normal'. I worked out that I saw an average of 0.23 celebrities per month. But what was really weird was that I appeared to be seeing them at regular intervals, with the next one due in April 2016. Random events should not occur at regular intervals! But I had no sightings in April so I concluded the pattern and prediction had been a coincidence after all.

But now I'm not so sure. This latest sighting is a certainly a near miss. It is just two weeks out of a predicted gap of four months between sightings. I could easily say it was a 'hit' but, having defined a hit as within April, I can't now change the rules. The average certainly remains at 0.23 per month. So, according to the apparent pattern, the next celebrity sighting is due in August. If it occurs during that month I'll be strongly tempted to say the pattern has indeed been maintained, with this this latest sighting just an 'outlier'!

The latest sighting was, incidentally, another actor, this time seen in the street. Though not at a railway station (as many such sightings have been) it was within a couple of hundred metres of a very large one! Another coincidence is that I had seen this particular actor, who does not do much TV, on DVD just a few weeks before.

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